Rolex Submariner "HULK" 116610LV vs The PSE Composite Index (2010–2025)

Comparative Asset Performance Report: Rolex Submariner Reference 116610LV vs. The Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index (2010–2025)

1. Executive Summary and Thesis Overview

The comparative analysis of alternative assets against traditional equities is a cornerstone of modern portfolio theory, particularly within emerging markets like the Philippines. Currency volatility and sovereign risk premiums significantly influence real returns. This report provides an exhaustive examination of the investment performance of two distinct asset classes over a fifteen-year horizon (2010–2025): the Rolex Submariner Reference 116610 (specifically the 116610LN "Lunette Noire" and 116610LV "Hulk" variants) and the Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index (PSEi).

The primary investment thesis investigated in this report posits that while the PSEi offers a regulated, yield-generating vehicle rooted in the productive capacity of the Philippine economy, the Rolex Submariner—specifically the green-bezel 116610LV—has functioned as a superior hedge against currency devaluation and a high-alpha speculative asset due to supply inelasticity and brand equity.

1.1 Core Findings

The analysis, grounded in historical pricing data and macroeconomic indicators, reveals a stark divergence in performance trajectories:

• The "Hulk" Alpha: The Rolex Submariner 116610LV ("Hulk") demonstrated logarithmic capital appreciation, driven by scarcity, the 2020 discontinuation event, and a global shift toward hard luxury assets. From a retail entry point in 2010 to secondary market valuation in 2025, the 116610LV outperformed the PSEi Price Index by a significant margin, even when accounting for the PSEi's total return (dividends reinvested).
• The "Lost Decade" of Equities: While the PSEi enjoyed a "Golden Era" of rapid expansion from 2010 to 2017, peaking in early 2018, the subsequent period (2018–2025) was characterized by stagnation, foreign capital flight, and valuation compression. The index struggled to regain its 2018 highs, turning it into a yield-dependent asset rather than a growth vehicle.
• The Currency Hedge Mechanism: A critical component of the Rolex's outperformance was its implicit denomination in US Dollars (USD). As the Philippine Peso (PHP) depreciated from the ₱40s range in the early 2010s to the high ₱50s/₱60s by 2025, the local currency value of the watch appreciated mechanically, insulating the Filipino investor from purchasing power loss.
• Frictional Reality: Despite the superior gross returns of the timepiece, the report identifies substantial frictional costs—liquidity premiums, dealer spreads, insurance, and physical security risks—that reduce the net realizable return for the horological investor. In contrast, the PSEi offered high liquidity and low transaction costs.

This report is structured to guide the sophisticated investor through the mechanics of both markets, the historical pricing evolution, and the behavioral finance factors that drove the valuation anomalies observed over the last decade and a half.

2. Macroeconomic Context: The Philippine Investment Landscape (2010–2025)

To understand the divergent paths of these assets, one must first contextualize the economic environment of the Philippines during this period. The performance of the PSEi is intrinsically tied to domestic GDP growth, corporate earnings, and political stability, while the price of a Rolex is dictated by global luxury demand and Swiss production constraints.

2.1 The Era of Optimism (2010–2016)

The observation period began in 2010, coinciding with the election of the Benigno Aquino III administration. This era was characterized by fiscal consolidation, anti-corruption rhetoric, and the Philippines achieving investment-grade sovereign credit ratings for the first time.

• Equity Market Impact: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and "Hot Money" flowed into the PSEi, driving valuations to record highs. The index expanded from roughly 3,000 points in 2009 to over 7,000 by 2014.
• Luxury Market Impact: During this phase, the Rolex Submariner 116610 (introduced in 2010) was viewed primarily as a consumption good rather than an investment. Supply at Authorized Dealers (ADs) in Metro Manila was relatively accessible, and the concept of "grey market premiums" was minimal for standard steel sports models.

2.2 The Pivot and Volatility (2017–2019)

The geopolitical shift under the Duterte administration, combined with the US Federal Reserve's tightening cycle (2018), altered the investment landscape.

• The 2018 Peak: The PSEi hit its all-time intraday high of 9,078.37 in January 2018. This marked the top of the cycle. Subsequent inflation spikes (due to the TRAIN law and rice supply issues) forced the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to raise rates, cooling the equity market.
• The Rise of the "Hulk": Simultaneously, global demand for Rolex sports models began to outstrip supply. Rumors of the discontinuation of the green-dial 116610LV began to circulate, causing secondary market prices to detach from the Manufacturer's Suggested Retail Price (MSRP).

2.3 The Pandemic and The Great Inflation (2020–2025)

The COVID-19 pandemic induced a global liquidity injection that inflated asset prices worldwide.

• The K-Shaped Recovery: While the real economy struggled, asset prices soared. The Rolex market entered a mania phase (2020–2022), driven by "revenge spending" and crypto-wealth. The PSEi, conversely, suffered from the prolonged lockdowns in the Philippines, one of the longest in the world, which decimated corporate earnings in the retail and property sectors.
• Currency Depreciation: The PHP weakened significantly against the USD during this period, moving from ~₱48 to ~₱58. This currency weakness acted as a tailwind for the local value of Rolex watches (which track USD prices) but a headwind for the PSEi (as foreign investors repatriated funds to the US).

3. Asset Class Deep Dive: The Rolex Submariner Reference 116610

The Reference 116610 is not merely a watch; within the context of this report, it is treated as a zero-coupon, perpetual commodity with high storage density and global liquidity.

3.1 Technical Specifications and Value Drivers

Launched at Baselworld 2010, the 116610 replaced the five-digit 16610 series. It represented a massive leap in perceived quality, which is crucial for its long-term value retention.

• The "Super Case": While maintaining the nominal 40mm diameter, the 116610 featured significantly thicker lugs and a wider crown guard. This "maxi" profile gave the watch a substantial wrist presence, catering to modern tastes.
• Cerachrom Bezel: The switch from aluminum to ceramic (Cerachrom) rendered the bezel virtually scratch-proof and impervious to UV fading. This ensures that even a 15-year-old example in 2025 retains a "like new" aesthetic, supporting high resale values.
• Glidelock Clasp: The milled clasp with tool-free adjustment was a quantum leap over the stamped clasps of previous generations, enhancing the feeling of luxury.

3.2 The Two Protagonists: LN vs. LV

The disparity in investment performance within the same reference number is driven entirely by aesthetics and rarity.

• 116610LN (Lunette Noire): The standard black dial, black bezel model. It is the "ubiquitous" luxury watch. High production numbers ensure liquidity, but suppress "scarcity premium".
• 116610LV (Lunette Verte) "The Hulk": Featuring a green sunburst dial and green ceramic bezel. This was the first and only time Rolex produced a Submariner with a green dial (its predecessor, the "Kermit," had a black dial; its successor, the "Starbucks," also returned to a black dial). This unique attribute makes the "Hulk" a "single-generation" anomaly, highly prized by collectors.

3.3 The Discontinuation Event (2020)

In September 2020, Rolex discontinued the 116610 series in favor of the 126610.

• Market Reaction: The confirmation that the "Hulk" was dead—and that its replacement would not have a green dial—triggered a vertical price appreciation. The asset transitioned from a "current production model" to a "discontinued classic" overnight.

4. Asset Class Deep Dive: The PSEi Composite Index

The PSEi serves as the benchmark for the Philippine equity market, comprising a fixed basket of 30 listed companies selected based on market capitalization, liquidity, and free float.

4.1 Composition and Concentration

The index is heavily weighted toward conglomerates (Holding Firms) like SM Investments (SM) and Ayala Corporation (AC), followed by Property (Ayala Land, SM Prime) and Financials (BDO, BPI).

• Implication: An investment in the PSEi is essentially a leveraged bet on the Philippine domestic consumption story and the urbanization/real estate cycle. It lacks significant exposure to the technology or export-oriented manufacturing sectors that drove global equity returns in the 2010–2025 period.

4.2 The Dividend Component

Unlike the Rolex, the PSEi generates cash flow.

• Yield History: Historically, the PSEi has traded at a dividend yield of 1.5% to 2.5%. However, as prices stagnated and earnings grew (albeit slowly) in the 2023–2025 period, yields expanded to the 4–5% range.
• Total Return Index (TRI): The PSE launched a Total Return Index to track performance with dividends reinvested. This is the only fair comparison to the Rolex's capital appreciation, as it captures the compound growth effect.

4.3 Structural Headwinds (The "Hot Money" Trap)

The Philippine market is classified as an Emerging Market (EM).

• Correlation: It is highly sensitive to US Treasury yields. When US rates rise (as they did in 2018 and 2022–2024), foreign capital repatriates to the US, causing the PSEi to sell off regardless of domestic fundamentals. This "beta" to global macro factors hurt the PSEi significantly compared to the Rolex, which trades as a global asset.

5. Comparative Financial Analysis: The Data

The following section presents the core data requested: a year-by-year comparison of price history. To make the comparison valid for a Philippine investor, all Rolex prices are converted to Philippine Peso (PHP) using the average annual exchange rate.

5.1 Methodology

• PSEi Level: Year-end closing value of the main composite index.
• Rolex Price: Average secondary market price (Grey Market) for a "Full Set" (Box & Papers) example. Retail (MSRP) is noted but secondary market price is used for valuation as it reflects realizable value.
• Currency: USD/PHP average rate for the conversion.

5.2 Table: Price History and Comparative Performance (2010–2025)

Year (End)	PSEi Index Level	PSEi YoY Change	Rolex 116610LN (USD)	Rolex 116610LV "Hulk" (USD)	Est. USD/PHP	116610LN Value (PHP)	116610LV Value (PHP)
2010	4,201.14	+37.6%	$7,400	$7,800	44.0	₱325,600	₱343,200
2011	4,371.96	+4.1%	$7,600	$8,000	43.5	₱330,600	₱348,000
2012	5,812.73	+33.0%	$7,800	$8,500	42.2	₱329,160	₱358,700
2013	5,889.83	+1.3%	$8,000	$9,000	42.4	₱339,200	₱381,600
2014	7,230.57	+22.8%	$7,900	$9,200	44.4	₱350,760	₱408,480
2015	6,952.08	-3.9%	$7,500	$9,500	45.5	₱341,250	₱432,250
2016	6,840.64	-1.6%	$7,800	$10,500	47.5	₱370,500	₱498,750
2017	8,558.42	+25.1%	$8,500	$13,000	50.4	₱428,400	₱655,200
2018	7,466.02	-12.8%	$9,200	$16,200	52.7	₱484,840	₱853,740
2019	7,815.26	+4.7%	$10,500	$17,100	51.8	₱543,900	₱885,780
2020	7,139.71	-8.6%	$12,500	$19,000	49.6	₱620,000	₱942,400
2021	7,122.63	-0.2%	$14,000	$24,000	50.8	₱711,200	₱1,219,200
2022	6,566.39	-7.8%	$14,500	$26,000	54.5	₱790,250	₱1,417,000
2023	6,450.04	-1.8%	$13,500	$22,000	55.6	₱750,600	₱1,223,200
2024	6,528.79	+1.2%	$11,500	$19,500	56.5	₱649,750	₱1,101,750
2025	6,052.92	-7.3%	$12,000	$22,000	57.0	₱684,000	₱1,254,000

5.3 Performance Analysis

1. 2010–2014: The PSEi was the clear winner. The index nearly doubled from ~4,200 to ~7,200. During this time, the Rolex prices were relatively stagnant, barely keeping pace with inflation. The "opportunity cost" of holding the watch during this equity bull run was massive.
2. 2015–2019: The inflection point. As the PSEi entered a choppy, sideways consolidation, the Rolex 116610LV "Hulk" began its ascent. By 2018, the Hulk (₱853k) had more than doubled its 2010 value in PHP terms, while the PSEi was struggling to hold the 7,500 line.
3. 2020–2025: Total divergence. The PSEi suffered from the pandemic and subsequent inflation shocks, ending 2025 lower than its 2014 close (price return). The Rolex "Hulk," however, exploded in value. Even after the 2023–2024 correction, the 2025 value of ₱1.25M represents a 265% return in PHP terms from the 2010 entry price.

6. The "Hulk" Anomaly: Anatomy of a Bubble (and Sustainability)

The outperformance of the 116610LV "Hulk" requires specific dissection, as it is an outlier event in the history of horological investing.

6.1 The Discontinuation Premium

When Rolex announced the 126610LV in 2020, collectors realized the new watch had a black dial. The "Hulk" (green dial) immediately became a closed-set collectible.

• Mechanism: In financial markets, this is equivalent to a company announcing a stock buyback of 100% of the float, creating infinite scarcity. There will never be another 116610LV produced. This creates a "floor" on the price, as collectors hoard the asset.

6.2 The Psychology of Color in Asian Markets

In the Philippines (and greater Asia), the color green is culturally associated with prosperity and good fortune. The "Hulk" benefited disproportionately from demand in the Asian markets (China, HK, Philippines, Singapore) compared to Western markets. This cultural premium fueled the grey market demand in Manila, where "Hulk" allocations at ADs were notoriously corrupt or reserved for "VVIP" clients with massive purchase histories.

6.3 Social Media and Hype Cycles

The rise of "Watch Instagram" and "Wrist Checks" from 2015–2020 turned the 116610LV into a recognizable symbol of wealth. Unlike the PSEi, which is an abstract financial concept, the Hulk is a wearable asset that confers immediate social status. This "utility of display" helped sustain demand even as prices became detached from the intrinsic value of the steel and movement.

7. Friction, Liquidity, and Risk: The "Hidden" Balance Sheet

A superficial look at the price chart suggests the Rolex was the superior investment. However, professional analysis requires the inclusion of frictional costs.

7.1 The Spread (Bid-Ask)

• PSEi: The cost to enter/exit is regulated. Buying ₱1M worth of stocks incurs a roughly 0.25% broker commission. Selling incurs the commission plus a 0.6% Stock Transaction Tax (STT). Total round-trip cost is ~1%.
• Rolex: The "Market Price" listed on Chrono24 is the Ask price. If you try to sell your Hulk to a dealer in Greenhills or Makati, they will offer the Bid price, which is typically 15–25% lower.
  • Example (2025): Market Price is ₱1.25M. Dealer Offer is likely ~₱1.0M. The "realizable gain" is significantly lower than the chart suggests. Private-to-private sales can reduce this spread but introduce security risks.

7.2 Holding Costs and Risks

• Physical Risk: A ₱1.2M watch on the wrist is a liability in Metro Manila. Theft or damage is a real risk. Insurance premiums for luxury watches typically run at 1–2% of the insured value per year. Over 15 years, this accumulates to ~15–30% of the asset's value in holding costs.
• Maintenance: The Rolex Caliber 3135 is robust but requires servicing every 10 years. A full service at a Rolex Service Center (RSC) costs between ₱40,000 and ₱60,000.
• PSEi: No physical storage costs, no insurance required, and management fees for Index Funds (like the BPI Philippine Equity Index Fund) are roughly 0.5% to 1.0% per annum.

8. Total Return Analysis: Dividends vs. Utility

To be fair to the equity market, one must account for dividends. The PSEi Total Return Index (TRI) tracks the performance if all dividends were reinvested.

8.1 PSEi TRI Performance

While the price index was flat from 2014 to 2025, the TRI continued to compound.

• Dividend Yield Reinvestment: Assuming a conservative 2% average yield reinvested annually, the PSEi TRI would likely show a ~35–40% premium over the Price Index by year 15.
• Adjusted Comparison: Even with dividends, the PSEi TRI return (est. ~100–120% over 15 years) still trails the Rolex 116610LV "Hulk" (265% return). However, the PSEi TRI is competitive with, and possibly superior to, the standard 116610LN "Black" Submariner (~110% return) once spread and insurance costs are deducted.

8.2 The "Utility Dividend"

The Rolex pays no cash dividend. Its "dividend" is the pleasure of ownership (hedonic utility). For a collector who wears the watch daily for 15 years, this utility has tangible value. If the "cost per wear" is calculated against the appreciation, the owner effectively enjoyed a luxury good for free, plus a profit. This is the ultimate "boy math" or "girl math" justification for luxury investing.

9. Future Outlook (2026 and Beyond)

The past 15 years were defined by specific conditions (low rates, China boom, discontinuation hype) that may not repeat.

9.1 Valuation Ceilings for the Rolex

The 116610LV appears to have hit a valuation ceiling around the $20,000–$22,000 mark.

• Resistance: At this price point, it competes with precious metal watches (Gold Day-Dates, Audemars Piguet). It is difficult to see the steel Hulk doubling again to $44,000 without hyperinflation. The asset has matured.
• Supply: While no new 116610LVs are being made, the existing supply is durable. They do not decay. As boomers transfer wealth, more supply may hit the secondary market, potentially dampening prices.

9.2 The Case for PSEi Mean Reversion

The PSEi is currently trading at valuation multiples (P/E ratio) near historical lows.

• Yield Support: With yields pushing 5%, the downside is limited. If the BSP cuts rates in 2026/2027, the PSEi could see a significant re-rating.
• Economic Growth: The Philippines continues to have strong demographic dividends. If the government can resolve infrastructure bottlenecks and attract FDI, the "Lost Decade" could be followed by a catch-up phase.

10. Conclusion and Verdict

The comparative analysis yields a definitive, albeit nuanced, verdict on the investment thesis.

10.1 The Winner: Rolex Submariner 116610LV "Hulk"

The "Hulk" was the superior investment vehicle of the 2010–2025 era. It generated alpha through scarcity, hedged against the deteriorating Peso, and benefited from a unique discontinuation event. It functioned effectively as a leveraged bet on the US Dollar and the luxury collectible market.

10.2 The Runner Up: PSEi Composite Index

The PSEi failed to generate capital appreciation for long-term holders entering after 2014. It served primarily as a volatility trap for the last decade. However, for income-focused investors, the dividend stream provided a floor that the non-yielding Rolex could not match.

10.3 The Control Group: Rolex Submariner 116610LN

The standard black Submariner performed admirably as a store of value. It preserved purchasing power against inflation and currency depreciation but did not generate the "life-changing" returns of its green sibling. It is a savings account on the wrist, not a winning lottery ticket.

10.4 Strategic Recommendation

For the investor in 2026:

• Avoid chasing the Hulk at current valuations. The easy money has been made.
• Consider the PSEi for a contrarian value play. The risk-reward ratio currently favors the beaten-down equity market over the inflated luxury watch market.
• Use Rolex as a Hedge, not a Growth Engine. Buying a steel sports Rolex at retail (if possible) remains a sound financial decision, but buying at grey market premiums with the expectation of another 200% rally is speculative gambling, not investing.

The 2010–2025 period was the "Age of the Hulk." The data suggests the next cycle may belong to productive assets that have been overlooked in the mania for collectibles.

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The markets for luxury watches are unregulated and highly illiquid compared to securities markets. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Works Cited

• 1. Rolex Hulk | Chrono24.com
• 2. Rolex Submariner Market Report: Trends, Insights and Investment Value (2025)
• 3. PSE Composite Index - Wikipedia
• 4. Philippines Stock Market (PSEi) - Quote - Chart - Historical Data - News | TradingEconomics
• 5. The SHOCKING TRUTH of Buying A Rolex From Your Authorised Dealer! - WatchDealer's HONEST Q&A - YouTube
• 6. Rolex 116610 - Submariner Date watches - Chrono24
• 7. Breaking Down Rolex Prices: Retail vs. Actual Market for Top Models
• 8. The Rolex Submariner Price History - Bob's Watches
• 9. All About the Rolex Hulk Submariner - Luxury Bazaar
• 10. Rolex Submariner Date - 2020 Price Drop (116610LN) - YouTube
• 11. 2023 Philippine Financial Stability Report - Facts igures
• 12. Rolex 116610LN - Submariner Date watches - Chrono24
• 13. Used Men's Rolex Submariner Hulk Ref 116610LV - Bob's Watches
• 14. How Much is a Rolex Submariner Watch: The Ultimate Price Guide
• 15. Stock Market - Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
• 16. Philippine Stock Exchange - Wikipedia
• 17. Philippines Dividend Yield Ratio: Index Level: PSEi | Economic Indicators - CEIC
• 18. Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE:PSE) Dividend Yield, History and Growth - SimplyWall St
• 19. PSEi performance 2010-16 v 2016-2022 : r/phinvest - Reddit
• 20. Rolex Watch Prices: Historical and Current From Actual Sales ...
• 21. Has anyone bought a Rolex in an AD in Manila recently? - Reddit
• 22. Philippines - COL Financial
• 23. Understanding BDO Securities Fees
• 24. How Much Is Watch Insurance & What Does It Cover? - BriteCo
• 25. Rolex Service Cost: The Official 2025 Price List - Bob's Watches
• 26. BPI Philippine Equity Index Fund